2022年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测

2021年全球经济恢复性反弹带动原油消费强劲增长，同时受制于原油供应偏紧，原油市场全年处于供不应求局面。国际原油价格整体走强，年均价较2020年大幅提高。展望2022年，全球经济将从恢复性反弹回归正常有序复苏，原油需求增速逐步放缓，受新冠疫情反复等因素冲击，或将出现阶段性大幅波动；OPEC+将延续稳健增产路线，美国原油产量增加，带动原油供应显著提高；美元保持相对强势、期货市场看空、金价反弹动力有限释放利空信号。美国和伊朗谈判僵持、俄罗斯和乌克兰冲突持续升级加大了原油市场地缘政治风险，影响原油供应预期。综合分析，2022年国际原油市场需求恢复、供给不确定性增大，油价将持续高企，在新冠疫情、地缘政治等不稳定因素影响下，油价波动增强。预计Brent、WTI原油均价将在83~93美元/桶和78~88美元/桶范围。

International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Projection in 2022

In 2021, the fast rebounding recovery of the global economy drove strong growth in crude oil consumption, while the crude oil market was in an oversupply situation throughout the year due to tight crude oil supply. International crude oil price strengthened overall and the average price was much higher than that in 2020. Looking forward to 2022, the global economy will return from a recovery rebound to a normal and orderly recovery. Crude oil demand growth will gradually slow down and be subject to significant phase fluctuations because of the repeated epidemics and other factors. Crude oil supply will be a significant increase because OPEC+ will continue their steady course of increasing production and U.S. will increase its crude oil producing constantly. It has released bearish signals that the U.S. dollar will keep relatively strong, futures markets will not bet against crude oil and gold prices will be limited rebound momentum. The stalemate in negotiations between the United States and Iran and the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine would increase the geopolitical risks in the crude oil market and affect the expectation of crude oil supply. A comprehensive analysis showed that the demand of the international crude oil market would recover while the supply uncertainty would increase, and the oil price would rise continuously. The volatility of oil price would be enhanced under the influence of unstable factors such as epidemics and geopolitics. The average price of Brent and WTI crude oil is expected to reach 83~93 USD/barrel and 78~88 USD/barrel.