中国居民消费间接CO2排放核算及其关键减排路径

不断扩张的居民消费不仅带动上游产业链发展，也造成大量间接CO₂排放。为缓解碳减排压力，基于环境投入产出模型核算了2017年中国居民消费间接CO₂排放量，并对居民消费上游产业链进行详细剖析，以识别关键排放路径。结果表明:（1）2017年中国居民消费间接CO₂排放为28.17亿吨；（2）各部门间接CO₂排放差异较大，其中电力、热力生产，交通运输、仓储和邮政业以及化学原料和化学制品制造业为主要贡献部门，占总排放的75%；（3）居民消费间接CO₂排放主要集中在前四个产业层，占总排放的72%；（4）第0产业层间接排放的关键路径包含电力、热力生产和供应业，交通运输、仓储和邮政业及其他服务业等6个部门；（5）第一至第三产业层排放的关键路径为18条，且存在“部门聚集”和“自循环”特征。基于路径分析结果，指出第0产业层减排应降低电力和交通等重点部门直接CO₂排放强度，倡导食品制造和服务业等部门的绿色消费方式和合理消费需求。第一至第三产业层主要依靠跨部门协作减排，同时应重视电力、农业等关键部门减排的连锁反应。

Indirect CO2 Emissions from Household Consumption in China:Quantification and Key Emission Reduction Path Analysis

The continuous expansion of household consumption drives the development of upstream industrial chain, and thus causes substantial indirect CO₂ emissions. In order to mitigate carbon emission reduction pressure, the indirect CO₂ emissions from household consumption of China in 2017 were calculated using the environmental input-output model, and the key emission paths in the upstream industrial chain of household consumption were identified. The results show that: (1) The indirect CO₂ emissions from household consumption of China in 2017 were 2 817 million tons; (2) Emissions varied greatly among different sectors, of which the electric power and thermal production industry, transportation, storage and postal industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry accounted for 75% of total emissions; (3) The first four industrial layers contributed 72% to the total emissions; (4) The key paths of indirect CO₂ emissions in layer 0 included electric power and thermal production industry, transportation, storage, postal industry, and other services industries; (5) There are 18 critical paths of CO₂ emissions in layers 1 to 3, with the characteristics of “sectoral aggregation” and “self-circulation”. Based on the results of path analysis, this study pointed out that emission reduction in layer 0 depends on the direct CO₂ emission intensity control of key sectors such as power and transportation and the advocacy of green consumption behavior, and reasonable consumption demand of food manufacturing and service sectors. Emission reduction in layers 1 to 3 mainly depends on cross-sectoral cooperation, and attention should be paid to the chain reaction of key sectors such as power and agriculture.