“十一五”期间辽宁省城镇劳动力供求趋势分析

关于城镇劳动力供求趋势的研究大多针对全国,而且预测方法各异。而就业形势严峻的辽宁省失业率位居全国前列,城镇劳动力供求矛盾十分突出。特别是随着产业结构的调整和国有企业改革的深化以及资源枯竭型城市的转化,“十一五”期间辽宁省城镇劳动力供求趋势将会发生何种变化?这是关系振兴东北老工业基地与结构调整以及国民经济持续较快增长的不可忽视的重要因素。因此,突破以往不区分城镇劳动力供给和全部劳动力供给以及仅来自城镇供给压力的预测方法,将政策因子引入模型,并采用加权最小二乘法有效地修正了模型,其拟合效果理想。

Analysis of Trend of Urban Labor Supply and Demand in Liaoning Province during the Eleventh "Five-Year Plan" Period

In view of the serious employment situation in Liaoning Province,it has very strong practical significance to analyze the tendency of urban labor force supply and demand during the eleventh "Five-Year Plan" period.Based on the analysis of the researches have been published and Liaoning Province's actual situation,this article effectively forecasts the trends by quantitative analysis.The results indicate that during the eleventh "Five-Year Plan" period,Liaoning Province's urban employment situation will be still serious.But compared to the tenth "Five-Year Plan" period,it will alleviate,simultaneously,the supply and demand gap will keep reducing.