通货膨胀定位理论与实证分析

通货膨胀定位框架（ITF）因其广泛认同的高效性，在世界范围内日益流行并被货币政策制定者采纳。基于对中国通货膨胀产生过程的全面分析，文章对通货膨胀治理框架的实用性进行了探索和研究，引入了与经典的Svensson（1997）模型假设不同的Chand—Singh（2006）模型，增加了供给方面的影响因素。研究显示，中国的通货膨胀主要是由需求推动的，奠定了采用需求管理策略（如通货膨胀目标定位）的理论基础。但要实现其远行，中国尚有很长的路要走，需要包括金融部门在内的多方配套改革作为政策准备。

Inflation Targeting Theory and Positive Analysis

Due to the widely observed effectiveness, Inflation Targeting Framework （ITF） has gained increasing popularity among monetary policy makers worldwide. This paper seeks to explore the applicability of this policy framework in China based on a thorough study of the inflation generation process. An alternative model based on Chand and Singh （2006） is introduced, whose assumptions are different from those in classic Svensson （1997） model, allowing for influences from the supply side. According to the subsequent test, Chinese inflation is primarily a demand -driven process. This makes it potentially possible to adopt demand management strategies like Inflation Targeting. But when it comes to actual implementation, China still has a long way to go. And among the necessary preparations, reforms in the financial sector are truly essential.