环保政策、技术创新与碳排放强度动态效应——基于三部门DSGE模型的模拟分析

文章将技术创新、碳税税率等因素纳入包括居民、企业和政府三个部门的动态随机一般均衡模型中,研究了环保政策、技术创新对碳排放影响问题。模拟分析表明：技术进步、研发投入、专有技术设备投资、环境治理投资可以有效地降低碳排放强度,总体上可以实现经济增长与环境改善的双赢目标。碳税税率冲击对总产出的负向影响特别明显,环境治理投资冲击的后期正向效应比较明显,政府治污支出冲击的当期效果比较明显。同时发现,专有技术设备投资将会挤出研发投资,政府治污支出将会挤出居民消费。总体来看,专有技术设备投资冲击对碳排放、碳排放强度波动贡献最小,环境治理投资冲击对碳排放、碳排放强度波动影响比较大。根据结论提出了完善企业碳排放内部治理及外部监督机制、成立协调管理机构、逐步建立碳税试点机制、进一步落实国家各项政策完善创新政策体系等政策建议。

Environmental protection policy, technological innovation and dynamic effects of carbon emission intensity: Simulation analysis based on three-sector DSGE model

Incorporating technological innovations, carbon tax rates and other factors into the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model including the residents, enterprises, and government, the paper studies the impact of environmental protection policies and technological innovation on carbon emission.The simulation analysis shows that technological innovation, R&D investment, proprietary technology investment, and environmental governance investment can effectively reduce carbon emission intensity, and on the whole, it can achieve the win-win goal of economic growth and environmental improvement.The negative impact of the carbon tax rate on total output is particularly obvious.The positive effect of environmental governance investment shocks is more obvious in the later period, and the effect of government pollution expenditure impact is more obvious in the current period.At the same time, it is found that proprietary technology investment will squeeze out R&D investment, and government pollution spending will squeeze out consumer spending.On the whole, the impact of proprietary technology investment on carbon emission and carbon emission intensity fluctuations contributes minimally.The impact of environmental governance investment on carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity fluctuations is relatively large.According to the conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy recommendations such as improving the internal governance and external supervision mechanism of carbon emissions, establishing a coordination management institution, gradually establishing a carbon tax pilot mechanism, and further implementing various national policies and improving the innovation policy system.