经济冲击对称性与区域经济合作:东亚与其他区域的比较研究

经济冲击对称性是区域经济合作的重要基础条件。我们运用三变量结构式VAR方法,对东亚、欧元区和美洲南锥体三个区域内部实际供给、实际需求与货币冲击对称性进行了实证分析。结果表明,东亚地区的实际经济冲击对称性总体上低于欧元区但高于南锥体国家,在东亚某些次区域集团中,实际经济冲击对称性已经达到或超过欧元区的水平;同时,东亚地区经济冲击规模高于欧元区而与美洲相近,但其冲击调整速度则明显快于其他区域。考虑到目前各地区经济合作的发展进程,东亚地区有足够的条件在现有基础上进一步推动制度化的区域经济合作与政策协调。

Symmetry of Economic Shocks and Regional Economic Cooperation: A Comparative Empirical Analysis among East Asia and Other Areas

The symmetry of economic shocks is one of the important fundamental preconditions for regional economic cooperation.This paper analyzed the symmetry(asymmetry) of real supply,real demand and monetary shocks in East Asia,Euro Area,and The South Cone countries in America by using a three-variable structural VAR approach,and found that the real shocks in East Asia are less symmetric than in Euro Area and more symmetric than in South Cone,but in some sub-regional groups,the real shocks are more symmetric than in Euro Area or at least equal to the latter.The size of shocks in East Asia is bigger than in Europe and close to some countries in South Cone,but the speed of adjustment in East Asia is the fastest among three regions.Considering current procedures of regional cooperation in these three regions,East Asia still has enough space for more institutional regional economic cooperation and policy coordination.