中国城乡收入不平等的时空演进及影响因素分析——基于收入两极分化视角

严防城乡收入两极分化态势加剧是切实消除贫困、改善民生、促进经济社会持续健康发展的必然要求.运用省级面板数据,对1990—2015年中国城乡收入两极分化的时空演进特征及影响因素展开了实证分析.结果表明:中国城乡收入两极分化总体呈现"双峰型"波动态势;西部地区ER指数始终最高,中部地区次之,东部地区最低;依据ER指数划分的各极化类型区空间分布极不均衡,且在样本年内变动明显;经济发展水平与城乡收入两极分化程度呈"倒U型"关系.从全国整体看,城镇化、农业现代化和政府行为有助于改善城乡收入分配格局,而产业结构升级、经济开放和基础设施建设则在一定程度上加剧了城乡收入两极分化;从分区域视角看,部分因素的影响效果在东中西部地区间有所不同.为改善城乡收入极化态势,须在把握总体演进阶段基础上,因地制宜提出有效对策.

An Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Evolution in China's Urban and Rural Income Inequality and Its Influencing Factors Based on the Perspective of Income Polarization

Preventing the intensification of the urban-rural income polarization is an inevitable requirement to eliminate pov-erty,to improve people's livelihood and to promote the economic and social development in a sustained and healthy way. Using the provincial level panel data,this paper analyses the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the urban-rural income polarization in China during the years from 1990 to 2015. The results show that:China's urban-rural income polarization showed a"bi-modal"fluctuation. The ER index in the western region is always the highest,followed by the central region,and the lowest in eastern region. It is extremely uneven in the spatial distribution of each polarization-type area divided by the ER index,with significant change during the sample years;It shows an inverted U shape relationship between economic de-velopment level and urban-rural income polarization. From the national perspective,urbanization,agricultural modernization and government behavior help to alleviate the urban-rural income polarization. However,industrial structure upgrading,economic o-pening and infrastructure construction may exacerbate the urban-rural income polarization in some degree. From the regional per-spective,the effect of some factors is different in east,middle and west regions. In order to reduce urban-rural income polariza-tion,it is necessary to put forward the effective countermeasures suitably based on the overall evolution stage.