首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
     检索      


Predictions of Migration from the New Member States after Their Accession into the European Union: Successes and Failures1
Authors:Miloslav Bahna
Institution:Institute for Sociology, Slovak Academy of Sciences
Abstract:This article evaluates predictions of the level of migration from Central and Eastern European countries which joined the European Union in 2004. It does so by comparing observed levels of migration from the new Member States with predictions based on a 2002 Eurobarometer survey. This comparison demonstrates that the failures of previous approaches were due mainly to underestimating the complex relationship between regional and international migration. In contrast to the situation in EU 15, the propensity to migrate regionally within the accession states does not imply a greater potential for international migration. This article shows that GDP was a strong predictor of migration from the new Member States during the 2004 to 2006 period. Equally important, the research presented demonstrates that well‐chosen survey variables have the potential to provide accurate measurements of migration intentions.
Keywords:
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号