| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of the eff ect of various baseball play-off configurations on the probability of advancing to the World Series. Play-off games are assumed to be independent. Several paired comparisons models are considered for modeling the probability of a home team winning a single game as a function of the winning percentages of the contestants over the course of the season. The uniform and logistic regression models are both adequate, whereas the Bradley-Terry model (modified for within-pair order eff ects, i.e. the home field advantage) is not. The single-game probabilities are then used to compute the probability of winning the play-off s under various structures. The extra round of play-off s, instituted in 1994, significantly lowers the probability of the team with the best record advancing to the World Series, whereas home field advantage and the diff erent possible play-offdraws have a minimal eff ect. |
