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The malicious host: a minimax solution of the Monty Hall problem
Authors:Jan C. Schuller
Affiliation:Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) , Av. E. Mounier 83/11, 1200, Brussels, Belgium
Abstract:The classic solution of the Monty Hall problem tacitly assumes that, after the candidate made his/her first choice, the host always allows the candidate to switch doors after he/she showed to the candidate a losing door, not initially chosen by the candidate. In view of actual TV shows, it seems a more credible assumption that the host will or will not allow switching. Under this assumption, possible strategies for the candidate are discussed, with respect to a minimax solution of the problem. In conclusion, the classic solution does not necessarily provide a good guidance for a candidate on a game show. It is discussed that the popularity of the problem is due to its incompleteness.
Keywords:Monty Hall problem  conditional probability  minimax  simulation  incompleteness
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