中国商品市场景气研究

由于市场中买卖双方信息的不对称,商品市场在运行的过程中容易出现供求的巨幅波动。景气指数可以有效地监控经济运行的波动情况,并对经济运行的转折点做出预报。本文挑选出反映我国商品市场发展各个方面特点的23个指标,选用中国商品市场2001年1月至2007年6月共78个月的数据进行分析。结果显示,景气指数较好的反映了我国商品市场的运行情况,为准确判断和预测中国商品市场的运行提供了可靠的依据。

The Boom Research on Commodity Market in China

As there is an information asymmetry between seller and buyer in the market,it is easy for the supply and demand of commodity market to fluctuate tempestuously in the process of economic running.The boom index can supervise effectively the fluctuation of the economic circle,and forecast the turning point of the economic running.This paper selects the 78-month data from January 2001 to June 2007 about commodity market in China,and picks 23 indexes reflecting various features to make the boom index for commodity market in China.The result shows that the operation of commodity market in China is better reflected by the boom index,which provides reliable grounds for accurate judge and forecast of the operation of commodity market in China.