汶川大地震极重灾区人口分布变动研究

人口分布是指人口在某一特定时间内于一定地理空间的集散状态，受多种因素影响。自然环境要素是人口分布的客现基础，但决定人口分布的关键因素是生产力发展水平与生产力布局。在一定时期内，在一个大的区域范围内，人口分布具有相对稳定性。汶川大地震极重灾区，社会经济环境与自然环境均发生较大变化，灾区人口分布格局变动不可避免。本文以汶川地震灾区10个极重灾区县为例，在系统分析灾前人口分布格局基础上，指出“耕地等农地资源灭失毁损、避灾搬迁、产业布局调整与升级、城镇体系空间重构、生态保护与修复”是影响灾后人口分布变动的主要驱动因素，提出灾区“人口总量基本不变，而城乡人口分布格局发生调整，并形成以县内分布调整变动为主、跨县人口分布调整为辅”的变动态势。

Research on the Changing Trend of the Population Distribution in the Wenchuan-Earthquake-Stricken Areas

Population distribution means that the state of population gathering and dispersion in certain geo-spatial region with specific period, which determined by many factors. Under the existing conditon of the natural environment, the population distribution is determined by the productivity and its deployment. Generally, population distribution keeps in relative stable state in a lagre region within certain period. After Wenchuan Earthquake, both the social-economic condition and natural environment has been partly changed, which will influence the population distribution. Taking the serious damaged region as a study area, this paper analyzes the main issues on the social-economic changes and the environmental changes faced by the earth- quake-stricken people, raises the changing trend of the population distribution of the earthquake affected area： the total population will keep in the stable level in the future, but the rural-urban population structure will be changed, most of the earth- quake victims migrate within the counties and few of them move out of the affected counties.