Farmer participation in voluntary land diversion schemes: Some predictions from a survey

National and European agricultural policy schemes are now coming forward which rely on land diversion to achieve a variety of supply control, social and environmental policy goals. Operating on a voluntary basis, these will depend for their success on sufficient numbers of farmers agreeing to enrol land in sufficient quantities and in the right localities. Participation is thus a crucial variable in any assessment of land diversion policies. This paper draws on the results of a farm survey to make some predictions about the level and pattern of uptake of a range of such schemes, identifying the characteristics of resistors and adopters and exploring the motives of participants. It is concluded that land diversion will have most appeal to well-placed farmers who are able to justify the diversion of land out of an agricultural use in terms of forestry and conservation plans which have already been laid. The implication is that voluntary schemes may not be especially powerful instruments for bringing about land use changes on the large number of holdings in the U.K. which presently lack any history of conservation or forestry management, at least not without accompanying reductions in the level of market support for agriculture.