Assessing small non-zero perceptions of chance: The case of H1N1 (swine) flu risks |
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| Authors: | Wändi Bruine de Bruin Andrew M Parker Jürgen Maurer |
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| Institution: | 1.Department of Social and Decision Sciences,Carnegie Mellon University,Pittsburgh,USA;2.RAND Corporation,Pittsburgh,USA;3.Faculté des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Institut d’économie et management de la Sante (IEMS), Université de Lausanne,Lausanne,Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | Feelings of invulnerability, seen in judgments of 0% risk, can reflect misunderstandings of risk and risk behaviors, suggesting
increased need for risk communication. However, judgments of 0% risk may be given by individuals who feel invulnerable, and
by individuals who are rounding from small non-zero probabilities. We examined the effect of allowing participants to give
more precise responses in the 0–1% range on the validity of reported probability judgments. Participants assessed probabilities
for getting H1N1 influenza and dying from it conditional on infection, using a 0–100% visual linear scale. Those responding
in the 0–1% range received a follow-up question with more options in that range. This two-step procedure reduced the use of
0% and increased the resolution of responses in the 0–1% range. Moreover, revised probability responses improved predictions
of attitudes and self-reported behaviors. Hence, our two-step procedure allows for more precise and more valid measurement
of perceived invulnerability. |
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