新疆居民消费对经济增长的影响分析

在分析新疆居民消费及经济增长现状的基础上,利用协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法对1990²012年新疆居民消费与经济增长的关系进行研究的结果表明,新疆居民消费总量和国内生产总值不断扩大,但居民消费对经济增长的作用逐步弱化,以1999年为主转折点,新疆经济增长的方式由消费拉动型转向为投资推动型;居民消费与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且两者互为因果关系,新疆居民消费对经济增长具有显著性的拉动作用。对此,提出扩大居民消费需求,促进经济增长方式由粗放型向集约型转变;完善消费环境,提高居民消费信心,扩大居民消费规模;丰富消费品种,刺激居民消费等对策建议。

The Impact of Resident Consumption on the Economic Growth in Xinjiang

Based on the analysis of the resident consumption and economic growth in Xinjiang,the relationship between the resident consumption and economic growth from1990 to 2012in Xinjiang was analyzed by cointegration and Granger causality test.The results show that resident consumption and gross domestic product are expanding and the role of consumption in economic growth is sharking.At the turning point of 1999,Xinjiang＇s economic growth mode turned from consumption-led to investment type;a long-term stable equilibrium relationship existents between the resident consumption and economic growth,a causal between each other.According to the conclusion,increasing resident consumption,promoting economic growth mode changing from extensive type to intensive type;improving the consumption environment and consumer confidence,expanding the scale of consumption inhabitants enriching variety of consumption,stimulating consumption and ease inflationary pressures are suggested.