系统动力学及其应用研究中的几个问题

当前系统动力学及其应用研究的现状为:方法研究主要集中于理论和思想、方法和技术两大类;应用研究可归为组织规划及策略设计、社会公共管理决策、生物与医学、环境与资源等四大类。已有研究在心智模型的表达与完善、规范化策略设计、结构层策略设计、有效度测试、模型及策略的实用性等方面的研究还存在问题与不足,今后的研究可着眼于心智模式的相关研究、策略设计的规范化、与其他理论方法的互补、模型有效度研究及应用研究等。

Problems in System Dynamics and Its Application

A compact survey on researches and applications of System Dynamics(SD) is presented based on the analysis of some publications on SD which appeared in widely scattered sources in the past 50 years.The survey shows that researches of SD focused on method and application.The former mainly focuses on theory and thoughts,and methods and technology;the latter falls into the categories of organization planning and decision,public management and decision in society,biology and medicine,resources and environment,etc.Current research is insufficient in mental models,try error and formal method in policy deign,SD model validity and simplification,relationships between behaviors and model structures,practicability of model and policy,etc.Finally,some issues for future research on SD are put forward.