| 2020年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵鲁涛,孙陆一,郑志益,王岱嵩,唐葆君. 2020年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测[J]. 北京理工大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, 22(2): 26-30. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2020.7327 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵鲁涛 孙陆一 郑志益 王岱嵩 唐葆君 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 北京科技大学 数理学院, 北京 100083; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目（71871020，71934004，71521002）；国家科技重大专项课题（2016ZX05031-004） |
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| 摘 要： | 2019年国际原油价格在以小幅增长开局后，受供过于求基本面影响冲高回落，于中低位持续震荡。展望2020年，从基本面和非基本面着手，分析全球经济、供需、美元、黄金、市场投机和地缘政治等因素未来动向，对2020年国际原油价格走势进行整体展望和预测。预计2020年Brent、WTI两市价差明显，国际原油全年均价将不会出现大幅增长，日常运行将延续震荡态势，对Brent、WTI原油均价预测结果为61~71美元/桶和53~63美元/桶。
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| 关 键 词： | 原油价格 价格预测 市场分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-01-20 |
International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Projection in 2020 |
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| ZHAO Lutao,SUN Luyi,ZHENG Zhiyi,WANG Daisong and TANG Baojun. International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Projection in 2020[J]. Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology(Social Sciences Edition), 2020, 22(2): 26-30. DOI: 10.15918/j.jbitss1009-3370.2020.7327 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Lutao SUN Luyi ZHENG Zhiyi WANG Daisong TANG Baojun |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Mathematics and Physics, University and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China;2. Center for Energy And Environment Policy Research, School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The international crude oil prices rose slightly at the beginning of 2019. Then the excess supply pushed down the price and it kept fluctuating between low and medium levels. Looking forward to 2020,the international crude oil prices will be influenced by the global economy,supply and demand,the dollar,the gold,future market and geopolitics. It is expected that the price difference between the Brent and WTI markets will be significant in 2020. The annual average price of international crude oil will not increase significantly,and the daily operation will continue to fluctuate. The average price of Brent and WTI crude oil will reach $ 61-71 USD/barrel and 53-63 USD/barrel. |
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| Keywords: | crude oil price price projection market analysis |
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