2019年国际原油价格分析与趋势预测

2018年，国际原油价格经历平稳开局后，减产协议、核制裁等多种因素交错影响原油供需，导致全年市场波动较大。展望2019年，从基本面和非基本面着手，分析全球经济、原油供应、库存、汇率、市场投机和地缘政治等因素的未来动向，对2019年国际原油价格走势进行整体展望和预测。综合考虑国际原油市场各影响因素，结合预测模型客观计算和专家的主观判断，2019年国际原油价格将出现阶段性较大幅度涨跌，但整体还将保持低位震荡态势，Brent、WTI两市价差不确定性增大。预计Brent、WTI原油均价将会达到57~72美元/桶和51~66美元/桶。

International Crude Oil Price Analysis and Projection in 2019

In 2018，after the international crude oil price experienced a smooth start，various factors such as production reduction agreements and nuclear sanctions influence the supply and demand of crude oil，resulting in large fluctuations throughout the year. Looking forward to 2019，this paper starts from the fundamental and non-fundamental aspects，analyzes the future trends of the global economy，crude oil supply，inventory，exchange rate，market speculation and geopolitics，and forecasts the international crude oil price trend in 2019. Considering the various influencing factors of the international crude oil market，combined with the objective calculation of the forecasting model and the subjective judgment of the experts，the international crude oil price will rise and fall in a large period in 2019，but the overall will remain at a low level，and the uncertainty of the Brent and WTI price difference will increases. As a whole，the average price of Brent and WTI crude oil is expected to reach 57~72 USD / B and 51~66 USD/B.