基于模仿传染模型的比特币羊群效应分析

运用行为金融学的相关理论对比特币交易市场中的羊群效应进行分析，研究结果表明，比特币投资者的市场预期及依据市场预期所采取的投机行为与比特币价格相互影响，使投资者之间相互模仿，从而产生了羊群效应；根据比特币系统的设计原理，市场结构的变化将引起更强的羊群效应，表现为价格更剧烈地波动。从规范的角度来看，应强化比特币基本价值的信息披露、强化网络安全，弱化比特币交易的传染系数、减小其羊群效应，让市场机制和经济主体的理性决策决定比特币投资市场的运行和发展。

Analysis of Bitcoin Herd Behavior Based on Imitation and Infection Model

The theories of behavioral finance is applied to analyze herd behavior in bitcoin trading market.The results show that market expectation of bitcoin investors together with trade behavior based on the expectation are interactive with bitcoin price, which makes investors imitate each other, resulting in herd behavior.Moreover, according to the design principle of bitcoin system, the change of market structure will cause stronger herd be-havior, characterized by more drastic price fluctuation.Therefore, from the perspective of normalization, meas-ures should be taken to strengthen information revelation of bitcoin fundamental value and Internet security, and reduce the infection coefficient and the impact of herd behavior.The development of bitcoin investment market should be ruled by market mechanism and rational decisions of economic agents.