能源系统复杂性管理建模方法研究

提出了一种基于能源系统微观主体行为的仿真建模方法,将微观仿真与中观能源规划、宏观社会经济均衡有机结合,进而发展出由演化模块(E)、综合优化模块(O)及系统动力学模块(D)构成,以智慧(W)为统领的Weod架构,体现了综合集成方法从定性到定量,人机结合实现信息知识和智慧的综合集成思想,旨在为能源系统复杂性预测、评价与优化管理提供一个有力的方法工具。

Research on Modeling Complexity Management in Energy Resource Systems

An agent-based energy system simulation modeling method is proposed,which integrates micro simulation,meso energy planning and macro social and economic equilibrium,and then develops an WEOD framework,which composes of evolution(E) module,overall optimization(O) module and system dynamics(D) module and guided by human wisdom(W).The Weod framework embodies the methodology of Meta synthesis from qualitative to quantitative and combining of human with machine to synthetically integrate information,knowledge and wisdom,and supply a powerful method and tool for energy system complexity forecasting,evaluating and optimization management.