我国利率市场化对经济生活影响的实证分析

在我国传统的经济生活中,利率是很稳定的因素,它不是根据市场调节的,所以对经济的影响并不明显。随着市场经济的完善,我国逐步实施稳健的货币政策,并以利率为操作工具对存贷款利息进行了多次调整,其作用程度也随之体现出来。为此中国人民银行提出利率市场化改革的总体思路,针对新形势下对利率的作用规律认识的要求,将中国改革开放以来的有关利率作用的规律进行实证分析。首先,全社会的金融化进程与真实利率之间正相关关系;其次,中国转轨经济时期利率对物价、M2、贷款等经济指标作用的改变;最后,将利率的直接作用与间接作用综合考虑形成对经济总量的影响分析。

An demonstrative analysis of the economic life influences by interest rate marketization in our country

The interest rate is a stable factor in the traditional economic life in China, for it is not regulated by markets, thereby having a unnoticeable impact on economy. With the perfection of market economy, China has come to implement the stable monetary policy step by step, and the rates of loan and interest have been adjusted several times with interest rates as an operation tool. Its function has been evident too. Therefore, the People's Bank of China has put forward the overall scheme of the market-oriented reform of interest rate. With the demand of recognizing the function rules of interest rate in the new period, a demonstrative analysis should be undertaken of the function rules of interest rates since the reform of China. First of all, the relevant relation needs to be discovered between the financial processes and true interest rates of the society. Secondly, the change needs to be revealed on function of interest rates on economic indicators, such as prices, M2, loan, etc. in the period of China's economic transformation. Finally, the direct and indirect influences of interest rates need to be considered so as to undertake an influence analysis of the economic quantity.