中国省际公共资本存量估算:概念、框架与指标构建

文章通过合理界定公共资本内涵及统计范围，运用资产价值公式推导资产折旧率的时间序列数据，基于永续盘存法、“年龄—效率”函数谨慎测算1985-2014年中国省际公共资本存量和生产性公共资本存量。结果表明，与公共资本存量相比，生产性公共资本存量通过综合考虑资产退役及效率损失，更能反映实际服务于生产过程的公共资本规模。总体上，中国生产性公共资本存量自1993年以来增速明显加快，金融危机时期积极财政政策的实施进一步推动公共资本存量的迅速积累；区域上，生产性公共资本存量由东向西呈阶梯式分布，沿海地区公共资本存量处于领先水平，而大西北地区的公共投资呈严重不足状态。

Estimation of China's provincial public capital stock: Concept, framework and index construction

Based on the perpetual inventory method and age-efficiency patterns, China''s provincial public capital stock and productive public capital stock are estimated from 1985 to 2014. In the process of estimation, the statistical range of public capital and time sequence of asset depreciation by deduction of asset value are employed. Comparison with the public capital stock, the results show that the productive public stock can be better to reflect the ratio of capital to production since assets retirement and efficiency loss are taken into account. Overall, the growth rate of productive public capital stock was slow before 1993, after that the rate was increased dramatically. And the implementation of active fiscal policy at the times of financial crisis such as 1998 and 2009, has contributed further to the accumulation of public capital stock. In addition, the productive public capital stock presents obvious ladder-like distribution from east to west. The public capital stock is largest in coastal regions and facing a serious shortage in northwest regions.