Spatial measurement error in infectious disease models |
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Authors: | Rob Deardon Babak Habibzadeh Hau Yi Chung |
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Institution: | Department of Mathematics and Statistics , University of Guelph , Guelph , Ontario , N1G 2W1 , Canada |
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Abstract: | Individual-level models (ILMs) for infectious disease can be used to model disease spread between individuals while taking into account important covariates. One important covariate in determining the risk of infection transfer can be spatial location. At the same time, measurement error is a concern in many areas of statistical analysis, and infectious disease modelling is no exception. In this paper, we are concerned with the issue of measurement error in the recorded location of individuals when using a simple spatial ILM to model the spread of disease within a population. An ILM that incorporates spatial location random effects is introduced within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. This model is tested upon both simulated data and data from the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. The ability of the model to successfully identify both the spatial infection kernel and the basic reproduction number (R 0) of the disease is tested. |
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Keywords: | individual-level epidemic models measurement error spatial models Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian inference hierarchical models |
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