湖北省固定资产投资与物价变动关系的实证研究

分析了改革开放30多年来湖北省固定资产投资与物价变动的关系,并运用协整分析和格兰杰因果检验等计量经济分析方法,对湖北省固定资产投资与CPI的长期均衡关系进行了验证分析。结果表明,固定资产投资是CPI的单向格兰杰因果关系。构建了湖北省固定资产投资与CPI的修正误差模型,并对防范固定资产投资型通货膨胀提出了政策建议:对投资规模进行"双轨调控"措施,双管齐下,有效控制固定资产投资规模,合理的配置资源;建立信息共享平台,完善经济运行机制,保持投资需求和供给的平衡,及时调控和引导投资力度和投资;扩大内需,引导经济增长模式从投资主导型、出口外向型向扩大国内消费主导型转变。

An Empirical Study on Investment in Fixed Assets and CPI in Hubei Province

This paper analyzes the fixed assets investment and price fluctuation of Hubei Province since the reform and opening up 30 years ago,and verifies the relationship between the fixed assets investment and the CPI long-term equilibrium by using the method of co-integration analysis and granger causality test and econometric analysis.The result shows that the investment in fixed assets is the CPI one-way granger reason.This paper has also established the error correction model of fixed assets investment and CPI,and put forward some political suggestions on how to prevent fixed assets investment inflation.These suggestions include: firstly,in order to effectively control the investment scale and reasonably allocate resources,measure of "double track control" must be implemented;secondly,it is necessary to establish information sharing platform,and perfect the economic operation system so as to keep the balance of supply and demand for investment,and timely control and guide investment;finally,Chinese government should guide shifts in economic growth mode from leading-oriented investment and export-orientation toward expanding domestic consumption.