| 真实队列年龄别生育率估算方法与应用研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 王广州,胡耀岭.真实队列年龄别生育率估算方法与应用研究[J].人口研究,2011(4). |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 王广州 胡耀岭 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 中国社科院人口与劳动经济研究所;天津人口情报中心; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 中国社会科学院重大项目(YZDA2010-15)阶段性成果 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 本文以时期育龄妇女年龄别生育率为基础,提出真实队列年龄别生育率估算方法,并通过1950～1981年全国妇女分孩次年龄别生育率数据验证其可行性和可靠性。在实际应用中,可用该估算方法研究递进生育模式及其相关问题,尤其是在调整生育政策的时间窗口,估算生育一孩的育龄妇女规模和结构,以及符合生育政策但尚未生育二孩的育龄妇女规模和结构,为政府制定生育政策和人口规划提供决策依据。
|
| 关 键 词： | 真实队列 年龄别生育率 生育水平 估算方法 |
The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age-specific Fertility Rates |
| |
| Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Wang Guangzhou,Researcher.The Estimation Method and Its Application of Cohort Age-specific Fertility Rates[J].Population Research,2011(4). |
| |
| Authors: | Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Wang Guangzhou Researcher |
| |
| Institution: | Wang Gongzhou Hu Yaoling Wang Guangzhou,Researcher,Institute of Population and Labor Economics,CASS,Hu Yaoling,Post-doctor,CASS. |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the period age-specific fertility rate,this paper has proposed an estimation method of the cohort age-specific fertility rate and uses data of the birth cohort of 1950-1981 to explain its feasibility and reliability.This method can be applied to analyze the pattern of parity progression and related issues,particularly for the adjustment of Chinese family planning policy.Using this method,this paper has estimated the quantity and structure of women with one child,and women who are allowed to have tw... |
| |
| Keywords: | Cohort Age-specific Fertility Rates Fertility Level Estimation Methods |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
|
