全球能源系统转型趋势与低碳转型路径

能源是经济社会发展的基础。煤炭、石油等化石能源的转化和使用与碳排放密切相关。自工业革命以来，人类大量使用化石能源，排放CO₂、甲烷、 氧化亚氮等温室气体，造成大气中温室气体浓度快速上升，全球气候加速变暖。因此，控制能源系统碳强度、增加非化石能源占比是应对气候变化的关键举措。目前，全球约70%的碳排放来自于能源部门，21世纪中叶实现CO₂的净零排放首先必须是实现能源系统的净零排放。2022年4月，联合国气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第六次评估报告（AR6）第三工作组（WGIII）报告《气候变化2022:减缓气候变化》正式发布。报告指出，2010—2019年全球温室气体年平均排放量处于人类历史上的最高水平，但增长速度已经趋缓。为实现《巴黎协定》提出的2℃和1.5℃温控目标，各行业都需要实施温室气体深度减排，其中，能源系统减排尤其重要和迫切。为实现1.5℃目标，整个能源系统都需要彻底转型和持续变革，包括大幅减少化石能源的使用、建设由可再生能源为主体的新型电力系统、广泛推行电气化等。在此，基于IPCC AR6第三工作组报告，综述了全球能源转型的特征与趋势，未来的机遇与挑战。

Global Energy Systems Transition Trend and Low-carbon Transformation Pathways

Energy is the foundation of economic and social development. The conversion and use of fossil energy such as coal and oil are closely related to carbon emissions. Since the industrial revolution, human beings have used a large number of fossil energy, emitting carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases, resulting in a rapid increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and accelerated global warming. Therefore, controlling the carbon intensity of the energy system and increasing the proportion of non-fossil energy are the key measures to control climate change. At present, nearly 70% of the global carbon emissions come from energy system. To achieve net zero emissions of carbon dioxide in the middle of this century, we must first achieve net zero emissions of the energy system. In April, 2022, the report of IPCC AR6 WGIII “IPCC climate change 2022: climate change mitigation”was officially released. The report points out that the average annual global greenhouse gas emissions from 2010 to 2019 are at the highest level in human history, but the growth rate has slowed down. In order to achieve the 2℃ and 1.5℃ temperature control targets proposed in the Paris Agreement, all industries need to implement deep greenhouse gas emission reduction, among which the energy system emission reduction is particularly important and urgent. In order to achieve the 1.5℃ target, the entire energy system needs to be completely transformed and continuously transformed, including significantly reducing the use of fossil fuels, constructing a new power system dominated by renewable energy, and widely promoting electrification. Based on the facts reported by IPCC AR6 WGIII, this paper summarizes the characteristics and trends of global energy system transformation, as well as future opportunities and challenges.