社会经济转型新模式对中国CO2排放影响

近年来中国社会经济发展模式发生较大变化，结合最新情况探究CO₂排放的社会经济影响因素，有助于为中国在后疫情时代推进CO₂减排提供决策依据。基于结构分解分析方法探究2017—2020年社会经济影响因素变化对中国CO₂排放变化的贡献，并在现有研究基础上结合修订后的统计数据再次评估2010—2017年中国CO₂排放变化的社会经济影响因素。研究发现:2017—2020年，生产结构和最终需求结构变化由2015—2017年的CO₂减排贡献转变为增排贡献，表明中国在结构性因素调整优化方面具有一定减排潜力。结合修订后的统计数据，2012—2017年能源利用效率和结构性因素变化对CO₂排放变化的贡献与现有研究结论存在差异。其中，能源利用效率变化由CO₂减排贡献转变为增排贡献，这与金属冶炼和压延加工业等高耗能行业单位产出能耗明显增长有关，同时反映了产品结构不合理将驱动CO₂排放增加。此外，各种社会经济因素对CO₂排放变化的影响具有明显的行业异质性。其中，电力热力生产和供应业、金属冶炼和压延加工业等重点排放行业受到的影响相对显著。基于此，提出以下建议:（1）调整石油化工等行业生产结构，促进全产业链CO₂减排；（2）进一步优化投资结构，引导消费端优先使用可再生能源；（3）优化高耗能行业产品结构，扩大高附加值产品供给；（4）建立跨行业协同减碳机制，推动重点排放行业CO₂减排。

New Patterns on Socioeconomic Drivers of CO2 Emissions in China

China’s socioeconomic development has undergone significant transitions. Exploring the socioeconomic factors affecting CO₂ emissions in recent years can support policymaking for CO₂ reduction in China in the post-epidemic era. Based on the structural decomposition analysis, we quantified the relative contributions of socioeconomic factors to CO₂ emission changes in China from 2017 to 2020. We also re-assessed the socioeconomic factors affecting CO₂ emission changes during 2010—2017 with revised official statistical data. Results show that changes in production structure and final demand structure contributed to CO₂ reduction from 2015 to 2017, while led to an increase in CO₂ emissions during 2017—2020. This finding indicates the potential of CO₂ reduction through the optimization of structural factors. We also find that the impact of socioeconomic factors (e.g., energy efficiency) on CO₂ emissions from 2012 to 2017 were different from existing studies. During 2012—2015, changes in energy efficiency were the driver contributing to CO₂ reduction, while the situation reversed from 2015 to 2017 due to unreasonable product structure in some sectors (e.g., the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals sector). Moreover, the impact of socioeconomic factors on CO₂ emissions had obvious sectoral heterogeneity. The production and supply of electric power and steam and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals sectors were relatively more affected. According to the above findings, this study proposes the following policy implications: (1) Adjusting the production structure of sectors such as petroleum processing and coking to promote CO₂ reduction of the whole supply chains, (2) further optimizing the investment structure and guiding consumers to use renewable energy, (3) optimizing the product structure and improving the proportion of high value-added products, (4) establishing cross-sector collaborative mechanism to promote CO₂ reduction of critical sectors.