全国碳市场扩容策略的经济和排放影响研究

为应对气候变化，中国政府提出了雄心勃勃的减排目标，并计划通过碳交易政策促进减排目标的实现。2021年全国碳市场从电力部门展开运行，将逐步覆盖其他部门。构建加入碳交易模块的动态CGE模型，评估中国碳市场不同扩容策略的影响。研究结果显示，中国碳市场在2022年即纳入其他七个碳密集部门的减排成本和宏观经济损失最小。此时，到2030年碳价为110元/吨，较基准情景累计减排5.11%，累计GDP损失为0.18%。若全国碳市场在“十四五”规划时期内未完成扩容，将导致单位减排的GDP损失较加速扩容情景提高32.77%。从部门角度，纳入碳市场的部门中，电力部门在碳交易政策下的减排量和经济损失最大，非纳入碳市场的部门中，煤炭生产加工部门的经济损失最大。此外，还讨论了模型参数和碳市场机制设计的不确定性对结果的影响，并为全国碳市场的发展提出了相应的政策建议。

Research on the Economic and Emission Impacts of the Expansion Strategy of the National Carbon Market

To mitigate climate change, China has proposed ambitious emissions abatement targets and plans to realize the targets through carbon emissions trading schemes. The national ETS, initially covered the power sector, operates in 2021 and then gradually covers other sectors. We construct a dynamic CGE model with the ETS module and evaluate impacts on different expansion strategies. Results show that the abatement costs and macroeconomic losses will be minimal, if the market covers the non-ferrous metals, non-metal mineral sectors, ferrous metals, chemical products, paper, petroleum processing, and transportation sectors in 2022. Under this scenario, the carbon price is 110 ￥/tCO₂, and the cumulative reducing emissions are 5.11%, and the cumulative GDP loss is 0.18% by 2030. If the national carbon market has not covered all eight sectors within the 14th Five-Year Plan, it will cause an increase by 32.77% of GDP loss per unit abatement compared will accelerated expansion scenario. Among the sectors included in the national carbon market, the largest abatement and profit loss emerge in the power sector, while that happens in the coal production and processing sector among the sectors not covered. Moreover, several alternatives of model parameters and carbon market design are discussed and policy recommendations based on these considerations are provided.