中国农产品贸易进口波动因素分析

2004年是我国入世后农产品贸易首次出现逆差,以此基础运用恒定市场份额分析(Constant Market ShareAnalysis,CMS模型),从需求、商品构成、竞争力三个方面讨论我国农产品进口大幅波动的成因。研究表明需求因素对进口逆差的影响程度最重要,结构影响起着次要作用,竞争力不足阻碍了出口,进一步扩大了逆差。因此,一方面提高农产品竞争力,另外转变对逆差的认知,这将对我国农产品贸易战略有一定启示。

Trade deficit's influential mechanism on international trade of China's agricultural products

In 2004 the trade of agricultural products experienced an adverse balance for the first time after the accession to WTO.On this basis,an examination of the cause of agricultural products import instability is made through constant market share analysis(Constant Market Share Analysis,CMS) from demand,composition of the commodity and competitive strength.This paper argues that the demand is foremost for the effect of trade deficit;the composition of the commodity is second;and decreasing competitive strength is barring the exportation.Thus we should improve agricultural products' competitive strength on the one hand,and on the other we should transform our ideology of deficit,which would give us a certain strategic enlightenment about agricultural products trade.