生态承载力约束下的重庆市适度人口规模情景预测

本文考虑区域生态承载力的"可能度"和人们对生态产品和服务消费的"满意度",提出结合生态足迹法和"可能-满意度"法的适度人口规模预测方法。以重庆市为研究区,在分析该区生态足迹和生态承载力的基础上,依据土地利用总体规划和不同收入国家的生态足迹水平,构建生态承载力约束下的生态足迹发展情景,对该区适度人口规模进行预测。结果表明:重庆市在生态足迹缓慢增长情景下的"可能-满意度"最高,对应适度人口规模为3306万人,该指标主要取决于土地利用变化与人们生态产品和服务消费结构和水平的变化。因此,重庆市应严格实施土地利用总体规划,引导人们通过调整消费结构降低生态足迹,这对于实现区域可持续发展和保护三峡库区生态安全具有重要意义。

The Scenario Prediction of Optimum Population Size under the Constraint of Ecological Carrying Capacity in Chongqing Municipality

In the study,a method was proposed to predict optimum population size with combining possibility-satisfiability method with the ecological footprint,taking the possibility degree of regional ecological carrying capacity and the satisfiability degree of ecological goods and services consumption into consideration.This study was conducted in Chongqing Municipality.First of all,ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity were calculated.Furthermore,the development scenarios under the constraint of ecological carrying capacity were designed for the prediction of optimum population size in Chongqing,according to the overall plan of land use and the ecological footprint of countries with various income.The results show that the possibility-satisfiability degree is the highest one under the scenario of slow growth in ecological footprint and the optimum population size is 33.06 million peoples in Chongqing.It is primarily dependent on the change in the usage of land and the change of structure and level in ecological goods and services consumption.In conclusion,the overall plan of land use in Chongqing will be put in practice strictly,together with guiding the peoples to readjust consumption structure.It is very important to realize the regional sustainable development and protect the ecological security in the reservoir area of Three Gorges.