Truncation of the Bechhofer-Kiefer-Sobel sequential procedure for selecting the multinomial event which has the largest probability |
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| Authors: | Robert E. Bechhofer David M. Goldsman |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Operations Research and Industrial Engineering , Cornell University , Ithaca, New York, 14853;2. School of Industrial and Systems Engineering , Georgia Institute of Technology , Atlanta, Georgia, 30332 |
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| Abstract: | In this article we study the effect of truncation on the performance of an open vector-at-a-time sequential sampling procedure (P* B) proposed by Bechhofer, Kiefer and Sobel , for selecting the multinomial event which has the largest probability. The performance of the truncated version (P* B T) is compared to that of the original basic procedure (P* B). The performance characteristics studied include the probability of a correct selection, the expected number of vector-observations (n) to terminate sampling, and the variance of n. Both procedures guarantee the specified probability of a correct selection. Exact results and Monte Carlo sampling results are obtained. It is shown that P* B Tis far superior to P* B in terms of E{n} and Var{n}, particularly when the event probabilities are equal.The performance of P* B T is also compared to that of a closed vector-at-a-time sequential sampling procedure proposed for the same problem by Ramey and Alam; this procedure has here to fore been claimed to be the best one for this problem. It is shown that p* B T is superior to the Ramey-Alam procedure for most of the specifications of practical interest. |
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| Keywords: | multinomial selection problem selection procedures ranking procedures sequential procedures open procedures truncate procedures |
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