Distribution of the Activity Time in Network Analysis: A Critical Revisit with a Gamma Alternative

Network analysis is an important technique for project management. However, the current literature is biased toward beta distribution for modeling activity times. In this article, we have critically examined the role of beta distribution. It has been shown that beta distribution plays no specific role. Further, the method for calculating the chance of project completion must be revised. We have accordingly suggested an alternative modeling in terms of gamma distribution and proposed how to calculate the chance of project completion by taking into consideration both critical and noncritical paths. For demonstration purposes, we have considered a small project.