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A Modification for Bayesian Credible Intervals
Authors:Tonglin Zhang
Affiliation:1. Department of Statistics , Purdue University , West Lafayette , Indiana , USA tlzhang@stat.purdue.edu
Abstract:In Bayesian analysis, people usually report the highest posterior density (HPD) credible interval as an interval estimate of an unknown parameter. However, when the unknown parameter is the nonnegative normal mean, the Bayesian HPD credible interval under the uniform prior has quite a low minimum frequentist coverage probability. To enhance the minimum frequentist coverage probability of a credible interval, I propose a new method of reporting the Bayesian credible interval. Numerical results show that the new reported credible interval has a much higher minimum frequentist coverage probability than the HPD credible interval.
Keywords:Bayesian credible intervals  Frequentist coverage probability  Location parameters  Posterior coverage probability  Prior and posterior distributions  Unimodality
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