A New Survival Model for the Diffusion Pattern of TV Programs

The study of television audience viewing behavior is very important. The results can provide broadcasters and advertisers useful information to increase the effectiveness of television programming and advertising. Based on hazard rate analysis for survival model, this research develops a new statistical model to fit the diffusion pattern of TV programs, which is a measure of the overall popularity of the program and is used as a criterion to sell the television time. The model helps the decision makers at the networks better understand the acceptance of the show and the underlying behavioral patterns of the viewers. It fits the empirical data in Hong Kong very well and outperforms the existing models. This basic model is then extended to the proportional hazard model to study the covariate effects on the likelihood of an individual watching the program at an earlier stage. Advertisers can benefit from these results in targeting their desired customers.