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Model of Combined Prevision: An Application of the Monthly Series of Dengue Notifications in the State of Pernambuco
Authors:Dirac Moutinho Cordeiro
Affiliation:Mathematics Department Polytechnic School , University of Pernambuco, UPE , Recife, Brazil
Abstract:In this paper we state and justify a two-stage sampling procedure for selecting a subset of size m containing the t best of k independent normal populations, when the ranking parameters are the population means. We do not assume that the variances of the populations are known or equal. Discrete event simulation studies are often concerned with choosing one or more system designs which are best in some sense. We present empirical results from a typical simulation application for which the observations are not normally distributed.
Keywords:Bayesian approach  Beta distribution  Box and Jenkins  Dengue  Dynamic linear model  Model of combined prevision  Monte Carlo error  Winters
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