我国农产品价格波动的影响趋势分析

采用投入产出技术,根据已编制的1981年、1983年、1987年、1990年、1992年、1995年18个部门1990年可比价投入产出表和采用单缩法调整的1997和2000年18个部门1990年不变价投入产出表,从成本推动的角度测算了中国不同年份农产品价格上涨1%对其他部门价格的影响程度和对我国物价总水平的影响程度,并对其影响趋势进行分析。结果表明,物价总水平受农产品价格上涨影响的总体趋势是逐渐下降的。并根据这一规律对农产品价格波动的影响趋势进行短期预测,预测结果显示,农产品价格上涨1%,2005年将导致物价总水平上涨0.12%,到2010年这一影响将降至0.09%。

An Analysis of the Trend of Impact of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation in China

Using the input-output model to compute the impact of the price fluctuation of agricultural products on the other sectors of China based on the 18-sector constant input-output tables for 1981,1983,1987,1990,1992 and 1995 by Li Qiang and Xue Tiandong and the 18-sector input-output tables for 1997 and 2000 adjusted with the flop out method,this paper computes the impact of the price fluctuation of agricultural products on the other sectors in different years.The impact of the price fluctuation of agricultural products on the whole price level can be calculated and the rule of the price level fluctuation can be studied.Based on the findings,the impact of the whole price in years 2005 and 2010 can be forecasted.Findings suggest that the general tendency is that the impact on the inflation is gradually decreased.One percent increase of the price of the agricultural products in year 2000 causes 0.15 percent increase of the whole price level,which has dropped 60 percent compared to 1981.The forecasts result show that if the price of agricultural products increase one percent in year 2005 the whole price will increase 0.12 percent in the same yeur,while in 2010 the price impact to 0.09 percent.