Future low fertility prospects in Mongolia? An evaluation of the factors that support having a child |
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Authors: | Thomas Spoorenberg Byambaa Enkhtsetseg |
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Institution: | (1) Population Estimates and Projections Section, Population Division, DESA, United Nations, New York, NY, USA;(2) Population Teaching and Research Center, School of Economic Studies, National University of Mongolia, Ulan Bator, Mongolia |
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Abstract: | With 2.59 children per woman in 2008, Mongolia appears today as an exception in East Asia where fertility rates are far below
the replacement level. Moreover, from its historical nadir of 1.95 children per women in 2005, fertility is on the rise. This
paper first presents recent fertility development in Mongolia. Second, based on the experiences of European and East Asian
countries, factors contributing to the development of low fertility are discussed in reference to the Mongolian context. Most
of these factors are indeed found in Mongolia and could probably contribute to reducing fertility in the future. However,
the country also presents cultural-family practices and recently-adopted fertility-family incentives which may support and
stabilize fertility rates. These recent fertility-incentives factors and policies adopted by the Government of Mongolia are
discussed in the final part from the perspective of equity, efficiency, and efficacy proposed by McDonald (2006b, “An assessment
of policies that support having children from the perspectives of equity, efficiency and efficacy”, Vienna Yearbook of Population
Research 2006, Special issue on ‘Postponement of childbearing on Europe’, 213–234). The aim is to determine if these measures
are efficient to counterbalance and cancel out the depressing fertility effects. |
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