政府减排目标、产业结构与污染减排

政府是污染减排的重要主体,了解其行为对污染减排的作用对提升污染减排效果及实现中国绿色发展具有重要意义。创造性地将政府减排目标纳入研究框架,构建面板门槛模型,从工业污染排放总量的角度分析政府减排目标、产业结构、经济规模等因素对地方污染减排的影响,并用工业污染物强度进行稳健性检验。结果显示,政府减排目标对污染减排的作用存在阶段性不同:经济发展初级阶段,政府减排目标对污染排放总量的作用方向为正; 经济发展水平较高时,作用方向为负; 两者之间存在适应性调整阶段,作用方向具有不确定性,但总体由正向作用向负向作用转变。产业结构对工业污染排放总量的作用方向因污染物种类而异,经济规模对工业污染排放总量作用方向为正。

Pollution reduction goal of government,industrial structure and pollution reduction

government is an important body in pollution reduction, and understanding the function of its behavior on pollution reduction plays an important role in promoting pollution reduction effect and the realization of green development in China. The pollution reduction goal of government is creatively included into the research framework. The panel threshold model is established. The influence on local pollution reduction of the factors such as pollution reduction goal of government, economy scale, industry structure is analyzed from the perspective of total industrial pollution emissions, and the stability test is carried out by the industrial pollutant intensity. The result shows that there are differences on the pollution reduction goal of government to pollution reduction effect at different economic development stages. In the primary stage of economic development, the effect of pollution reduction goal of government to the pollution emissions is positive. But in the higher stage of economic development, the effect of pollution reduction goal of government to the pollution emissions is negative. While in the middle stage of economic development, there is an adaptive adjustment in between, the effect is uncertain, but the overall effect changes from the positive effect to the negative effect. The effect of the industry structure to industrial pollution emissions is different for the variety of pollutants. The effect of economy scale to industrial pollution emissions is positive.