中国卫生总费用增长因素研究

从生产函数出发,利用最小二乘法建立一个卫生总费用增长因素的计量经济模型;并利用中国1978~2003年数据进行实证。结论为:经济增长是中国卫生总费用增长的最主要因素,1996年以来政府公共预算卫生费用支出的减少也对卫生总费用的增长产生积极的影响,医生诱导需求对卫生总费用增长的影响不大;人口老龄化还没有对医疗费用增长产生显著影响。最后,针对实证结果提出了某些建议。

Study for the Determinants of Total Health Expenditures in China

Based on Cobb-Douglas production function,this article builds up an econometric model for the factors of total health expenditure in China using ordinary least square.Meanwhile,the author carries out(analysis) by using the whole country's statistics from 1978 to 2003.The conclusions are as follows: economy is a key expenditure driver;the reduction of government expenditure allocated to health since 1996 has a significant influence on total health expenditure;reduced-demand by doctor has less effect;ageing population doesn't have significant influence.Finally,the author brings forward some proposals according to the empirical study.