基于投入产出技术的区域产业发展能力演进研究——以宁波服务业为例

基于投入产出分析技术，探索性构建产值利润率、展链度、流出率、流入率等指标，结合传统指标刻画表征地区产业发展动力、产业支撑、内外循环和服务能力。基于宁波2007、2012和2017年投入产出数据对其服务业的发展水平和能力演进进行了测算分析。结果表明，宁波服务业发展动力有所下降；对其他产业支撑能力有所减弱；生产性服务业对制造业的支撑广度有所增加，但力度有待提高；行业内部循环水平不断提高，行业外部循环呈波动上升，行业展链度水平有所提高；有一定的外部服务能力，但净外部服务能力较弱。

The Evolution of Regional Industrial Development Capacity Based on Input Output Technology as Showed by Ningbo Service Industry

Based on the input-output analysis technology, this paper aims to portray the regional industrial development power, industrial support, internal and external c irculation and service capacity by combining the traditional indicators with the indicators of output value profit rate, expansion chain degree, outflow & inflow rates etc. Using the input-output data of Ningbo in 2007, 2012 and 2017, we calculates and analyzes the development and capacity evolution of the service industry. The results show that the development power of Ningbo service industry has declined. The support for other industries is weakened. Supporting breadth of producer services for manufacturing industry is increased, though its strength needs to be improved. Its level of internal circulation is constantly improving, and external circulation level is fluctuating. Its industry chain degree is improved. There is a certain external service ability, but the net external service ability is weak.