未来10年中国货币供应量的预测

货币供应量的大小是影响国民经济能否正常运行的重要因素 ,是经济学者热衷于探讨的话题。在建立了总投资与国内生产总值的函数关系模型的基础上 ,在模型通过各种检验的情况下 ,采用适应性预期的预测方法 ,作者估计了未来 10年中国的国内生产总值及增长率 ,并以此为前提 ,计算出 2 1世纪头 10年中国的广义货币供应增长率 ,指出了从货币供给的角度来稳定经济的方法是按单一规则控制货币供应量。

The forecasting on the basis of GDP growth for the currency supply in the ten years to Come

The currency supply plays an important role in the national economy and its influence on the national economy has aroused general concern. Based on the establishment of a function relationship model between the general investment and GDP, the method of adaptability expectation is adopted in the thesis to forecast GDP and the growth rate of GDP in the ten years to come in China. Taking this as a prerequisite, the thesis forecasts the general currency supply in the ten years to come and its influence on the currency inflation, thus the author makes a suggestion that the currency supply should be controlled according to the single rule in order to stabilize the national economy.