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Markov regime switching in mean and in fractional integration parameter
Authors:Harun Özkan  Ege Yazgan
Institution:Department of Economics, Istanbul Bilgi University, Kurtulus Deresi Caddesi, Dolapdere, Beyoglu, Istanbul, Turkey
Abstract:We propose a specific general Markov-regime switching estimation both in the long memory parameter d and the mean of a time series. We employ Viterbi algorithm that combines the Viterbi procedures in two state Markov-switching parameter estimation. It is well-known that existence of mean break and long memory in time series can be easily confused with each other in most cases. Thus, we aim at observing the deviation and interaction of mean and d estimates for different cases. A Monte Carlo experiment reveals that the finite sample performance of the proposed algorithm for a simple mixture model of Markov-switching mean and d changes with respect to the fractional integrating parameters and the mean values for the two regimes.
Keywords:Fractional integration  Long memory time series  Markov regime switching
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