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On fiducial generators
Authors:Edilberto Nájera  Federico O’Reilly
Affiliation:1. División Académica de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad Juárez Autónoma de Tabasco, Tabasco, México;2. Departamento de Probabilidad y Estadística, Instituto de Investigaciones en Matemáticas Aplicadas y en Sistemas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México
Abstract:Fiducial inference has been gaining presence recently and it is the intention of the present article to look at the notion of fiducial generators; meaning procedures to simulate parameter values that in some sense correspond to simulations from some implicit fiducial distribution. It is well known that when the distribution has group structure, stemming from the natural pivotal associated, a fiducial may be obtained. It is in the non group distributions that there appears to be still room for finding a fiducial distribution. Recently some general procedures have been proposed for dealing with generalized fiducials, but these depend on certain choices for a structural equation or a fiducial equation, as in Hannig (2009 Hannig, J. (2009). On generalized fiducial inference. Stat. Sin. 19:491544.[Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]) or Taraldsen and Lindqvist (2013 Taraldsen, G., Lindqvist, B.H. (2013). Fiducial theory and optimal inference. Ann. Stat. 41(1):323341.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), respectively. A brief presentation is made of an earlier approach to fiducial inference for multivariate parameters, as in Brillinger (1962 Brillinger, D.R. (1962). Examples bearing on the definition of fiducial probability with a bibliography. Ann. Math. Stat. 33(4):13491355.[Crossref] [Google Scholar]), and the implied fiducial generator introduced in Engen and Lillegård (1997 Engen, S., Lillegård, M. (1997). Stochastic simulation conditioned on sufficient statistics. Biometrika 84(1):235240.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]), trying to connect them. Three interesting non group distributions are seen; two of them, the truncated exponential and the two-parameter gamma, already reported in literature. A third non group distribution is analyzed; the inverse Gaussian, connecting the fiducial that results following Brillinger (1962 Brillinger, D.R. (1962). Examples bearing on the definition of fiducial probability with a bibliography. Ann. Math. Stat. 33(4):13491355.[Crossref] [Google Scholar]), with a result pertaining confidence limits for the shape parameter in Hsieh (1990 Hsieh, H.K. (1990). Inferences on the coefficient of variation of an inverse-Gaussian distribution. Commun. Stat. - Theory Methods 19(5):15891605.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar]). In the three cases, comparisons are made with the Bayesian posteriors that have been known to be close numerically. Some discussion is made on the issue of singularities of the fiducial density and its connection with densities that do not integrate to unity. As to the case of discrete observables, some comments are made for the Bernoulli distribution, only.
Keywords:Conditional Monte Carlo  fiducial distributions  generators.
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