基于粗糙集与未确知模型的能源结构合理性测度与评价研究

我国的能源瓶颈突出表现为结构性矛盾。本文从低碳经济发展对能源结构的要求角度提出了社会经济发展、能源发展规划、环境等三个维度,分析了各个维度的构成要素,运用粗糙集理论进行指标约简,最终确定了11个测评指标以及各自权重。在此基础上,设置分级标准,通过未确知测度评价模型对1998—2008年我国能源结构合理性进行多指标综合测度与评价。结果表明,1998—2008年期间,我国能源结构在满足社会经济发展需求方面虽不稳定,但总体有所提高,2008年已处于中等级别(C3),但在满足能源发展规划和环境需求方面并不理想,一直处于较差或差的级别,2008年分别处于C5和C4级别。

Research on the Evaluation of Energy Structure Rationality Based on Rough Set Theory and Unascertained Measure

The structural contradictions are mainly shown as the energy bottleneck in China. Based on the theory of energy economics, this paper puts forward three dimensions, social and economic development, energy development planning and environment, from the perspective of requirements of low-carbon economy for energy structure. Analyzing elements of various dimensions, it identifies eleven measurement indexes and the weight of each index by the theory of Rough Set. Based on this, it sets the grading standards, and carries on the comprehensive measurement and evaluation of multi-indexes for the rationality of energy structure for 1998—2008 by unascertained measure evaluation model. The results show that, in the period of 1998 to 2008, the energy structure was unstable to meet the need of social and economic development, but it had an overall increase, being at C3 level in 2008; however, it was not ideal to meet the energy development planning and the environment, being at poor levels of C5 and C4 respectively in 2008.