北京市保障性住房供给预测研究

为解决北京市保障性住房供需矛盾，完善其住房保障供给体系，并使其实施更具可操作性，应用灰色系统预测理论，通过构建北京市人均建筑面积和户籍人口总数GM（1，1）模型，以北京市2003-2007年相关数据为原始样本值，预测出北京市2008年起未来五年北京市保障性住房供给总量。经过相对误差检验、均方差检验、小误差概率检验，原始样本值符合检验要求，预测结果具有精度高、拟合程度好的特点。研究结果表明：应用灰色GM（1，1）模型进行预测，量化了北京市2008-2012年各年度保障性住房供给总量，为政府进行相关决策提供了依据。

Research on Forecast in Indemnificatory Housing Supply in Beijing

This paper applies the Gray GM （ 1, 1 ） model to predicting the total supply in indemni：ficatory housing （IH） in Beijing from 2008 to 2012, in which Beijing household population and per capita floor space from 2003 to 2007 are regarded as the original samples, in order to solve the contradiction between supply and demand in IH, and improve the supply system and have excellent operability. The original test samples accord closely with the test requirements and the results have the characteristics of high accuracy and good degree of fit, after having the relative error test, the mean square error test and the small probahility of error test. The results show that the application of Gray GM （ 1, 1 ） model quantifies the total housing supply in IH from 2008 to 2012 and the predictive value provides the basis for government decision -making accordingly.