高速铁路对沿线城市可达性影响的实证分析

在对交通发展与沿线城市可达性关系研究的基础上，基于城市可达性的理论，以石武高铁为例，分别运用加权平均旅行时间和广义加权旅行时间这两种评价方法构建模型，对高铁开通前后沿线城市的可达性指标值进行估计，定量分析了石武高铁对其沿线10个城市可达性的影响，论证了高铁对其沿线城市可达性影响的机理。研究认为，加权平均旅行时间法只考虑高铁在缩短旅行时间方面的因素，得到的估计结果说明了石武高铁的开通显著提升了沿线城市可达性水平，提高幅度约为40%；而广义加权旅行时间法除了考虑旅行时间方面的因素外，还考虑到高铁票价的因素，得到的估计结果说明票价因素使石武高铁对沿线城市可达性水平影响的显著程度降低了，可行性提高幅度降至18%左右；高铁可以通过实行淡季或非高峰期票价折扣来提高客座率。

Empirical analysis of the impacts of high speed rail on the accessibility of the cities along the line

Based on the study of the relation between traffic development and the accessibility of the cities along Shi-Wu High Speed Rail (HSR) line, this paper, taking Shi-Wu High Speed Rail as example, constructed two models by use of weighted mean travel time and generalized weighed travel time, evaluated the accessibility index values of the cities along the line before and after the opening of high speed rail, and demonstrated the mechanism of the impacts of high speed rail on the accessibility of the cities along the line through quantitative analysis of the impacts of Shi-Wu High Speed Rail on the accessibility of the cities along the line. The results show that the method of weighted mean travel time only considers the shortening of travel time of high speed rail, and the evaluated results prove that the opening of Shi-Wu High Speed Rail has improved the accessibility level by 40%. The method of generalized weighted travel time considers not only the factor of travel time but also the rail fare, and the evaluated results prove that the accessibility level of the cities along Shi-Wu High Speed Rail line has been decreased to 18% due to the factor of rail fare. It’s found out that the discount of rail fare in low season or non peak period can be implemented to improve passenger load factor.