| 人才预测的系统方法及模型探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 江裕钊.人才预测的系统方法及模型探讨[J].电子科技大学学报(社会科学版),1990(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 江裕钊 |
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| 作者单位： | 电子科技大学管理工程系 |
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| 摘 要： | 用系统理论的整体性与分解—协调,以及定量与定性相结合的系统方法,讨论了对专门人才需求和合理结构进行长期预测的问题.还讨论了人才拥有量预测的马尔柯夫模型和人才需求总量预测的6种模型,并着重于预测模型及变量选择的一般准则.最后,讨论了验证预测结果的可行性、合理性和可靠性的三项标准.
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| 关 键 词： | 预测模型 专门人才 整体性 分解-协调 可行性 合理性 可靠性 |
STUDY OF FORECASTING SYSTEM APPROACH AND MODELS FOR SPECIAL TALENTS |
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| Jiang Yuzhao.STUDY OF FORECASTING SYSTEM APPROACH AND MODELS FOR SPECIAL TALENTS[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China(Social Sciences Edition),1990(6). |
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| Authors: | Jiang Yuzhao |
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| Institution: | Dept.of Management Eng. |
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| Abstract: | This paper discusses a question of long-term forecast,demand and reason-able organization for special talents,by entirety principle and decomposition-coordinationprinciple of system theory,as well as system approach of quantitative and qualitative analy-sis.It also discusses Markov model for possible talent quantity,makes use of six forecasting models for total requirement quantity of the talent,and emphatically proposes gen-eral selective criteria of forecasting model and variables for the talent.At the end ofthis paper,the forecasting results are verified by three criteria,that feasibility,reasonability and reliability. |
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| Keywords: | forecasting model special talent entirety decomposition coordination feasibility reasonability reliability |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
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