后《京都议定书》时代的前景探析

《京都议定书》第4次缔约方会议计划在2009年底丹麦哥本哈根气候变化大会上就2012年后应对气候变化达成新的全球协议计划，但是能否顺利地达成新协议的预测则比较困难，后“京都”时代的前景依然模糊原因在于：一方面应对气候变化的新协议显然没有给涉及到众多国家利益的温室气体减排问题的谈判留出足够的时间；另一方面，现实中很多阻碍性的问题并没有得到根本性地解决，如各方利益分歧难以协调、“共同但有区别的责任”原则得不到彻底的落实、《京都议定书》内容的缺陷、理论上的争论不休以及金融危机的影响等。因此，全球应对气候变化的努力仍将是一个长期而艰难的进程。

Prospect of the post-Kyoto Protocol era

The Fourth Conference of the parties of Kyoto Protocol plans to reach a new global agreement on possible actions after 2012 in response to climatic change in the General Assembly held in Copenhagen, Denmark, by the end of 2009. Yet whether a new agreement will be reached or not is hard to predict. The prospect of the post-Kyoto Protocol era is still not clear. On the one hand, the new global plan on climatic change has not left sufficient time to the many countries whose interests are involved to negotiate to cut down greenhouse gases emission; on the other, a lot of issues hindering in reality have not been fundamentally resolved, including the conflict in interest between the parties involved, ＂common but differentiated responsibilities＂, not-fully-implemented principle, the defects of the Protocol in content, theoretical disputes, and negative influence of financial crisis. In a word, it takes a long time to respond effectively to climatic change in the world.