中美安全政治关系的可能走向

探讨两个大国未来安全政治关系走向,一个可能的途径是将这两个国家放在一定的体系层面加以考察,因为这种考察有可能从宏观上揭示它们在安全政治关系中的基本情形.本文把体系层面研究的物质视角和文化视角结合起来,想象未来亚太地区国际体系中可能出现的五种格局,然后把中美安全政治放在其中加以理解.本文假定,中美两国在亚太地区不同的国际体系格局里将具有不同的社会身份,而这类不同的社会身份,有可能决定着它们如何看待彼此在物质实力方面发生变化所具有的含义,从而使双边的安全政治关系具有不同的特征.

Capabilities and Identities: A Likely Future of China-U. S. Security Relationship

A possible way to predict the future direction of the security relations between two states is to put the two states into certain systemic levels for exploration, on the ground that this exploration may disclose, in abroad sense, their relations in the politics of security. Using a mixed material-cultural approach, this article imagines five possible scenarios that may emerge in the international system of Asia-Pacific region, in which future China-U.S.security relations are understood. It argues that China and the United States will possess in those scenarios different social identities, which may, in turn,determine how they see the meaning of each other's changing material capabilities, so as to make their security relations tainted with different characteristics.