北京市能源消费影响因素分析及节能减排研究--基于产业视角

运用对数平均迪氏分解法（LMDI），对北京市2005—2012年三大产业下5个部门和产业端总的能源消费影响因素进行了分析。结果表明：2005—2012年，北京市产业端能源消费年均增长3．01％，主要的正向驱动因素是经济规模变化，负向驱动因素为产业结构变化、能源强度变化；在负向驱动因素中，能源强度变化对于产业端能源消费减少的贡献是最大的，说明降低部门能源强度特别是工业部门的能源强度对于产业端能源消费的减少具有重要意义；2005—2012年，由于能源消费结构中煤炭使用量的调整，产业端能源量节约528．71万吨标准煤，而能源结构中煤炭使用量变化对于产业端能源消费总量的平均贡献为－1．45％。积极调整能源消费结构中煤炭的使用量能够减少产业端能源消费总量。

Analysis on Influence Factors of Energy Consumption and Research on Energy Saving and Emission Reduction in Beijing:Based on the Industrial Perspective

This paper used LMDI,which can effectively solve the zero and residual problem as well as time transformation test,to analyze the influence factors from the perspective of five departments and total energy consumption in Beijing from 2005 to 2012.Empirical results indicate that:industrial en-ergy consumption grow by 3.01% and the main positive driving factor is economic size change,while the change of industrial structure and energy intensity change are negative driving factors;Among the negative driving factors,reducing energy consumption for industrial energy consumption is the most important,suggesting that reducing energy intensity especially industrial departments of energy inten-sity for industry to reduce energy consumption is of great significance;Due to the adjustment of the coal in the energy consumption structure,industrial energy saving is up to 5.28 million tons of stand-ard coal,and the average contribution of coal is -1.45%.Therefore,adjusting the use of coal in en-ergy consumption structure can reduce the industrial energy consumption.